February 12, 2018 (THE FERO REPORT). Happy Monday!

1. Damascus is now playing ball with the Kurds, who face an ongoing offensive from the Turkish Army and groups linked to Al Qaeda in northeastern Syria. The Kurds have been the US’ most effective partner in “shredding” the ISIS caliphate in Syria, as DefSec James Mattis said in late January.
  • “Seeking to shield Afrin, the Kurds asked Damascus to send forces into action to defend the border.”
  • The government shows no sign of doing so, but it is providing indirect help by allowing Kurdish fighters, civilians and politicians to reach Afrin through territory it holds, representatives of both sides told Reuters.”
  • “For the United States, it is yet another complication in Syria’s seven-year-old war, and a reminder of how its Syrian Kurdish ally must at times make deals with Assad even as it builds military ties with the United States.”
2. “Seeing too much FUD lately. Bounce is all I’m saying about this [Bitcoin NVT Signal] chart. Time to buy. Disclaimer: this is not investment advice, just data” – @Woonomic commented with a chart on the NVT Signal ratio.
Bitcoin NVT signal/Woobull Charts
Bitcoin NVT signal/Woobull Charts
One of the early techniques for valuing cryptoassets has been the network value to transactions ratio, (NVT), which basically takes the spot network value (sometimes called “market cap”) and divides it by the daily transaction volume.
This month @woonomic and Dimitry Kalichkin unveiled a modified version of the NVT ratio called the NVT Signal. NVT Signal is basically the same concept, except it divides the daily network value by the 90-day moving average of transactions volume.
Rethinking Network Value to Transactions (NVT) RatioCryptolab Capital, Dimitry Kalichkin
Bitcoin NVT Signal, Woobull Charts
  • “In fact, equity market P/E [price-to-earnings ratios] actually peaked back on December 18th, the day before Trump Tax Bill passed the Senate,” ZH noted. 
  • “We find it instructive and rational that the market multiple did in fact peak that day,” Morgan Stanley’s Equity Strategy Group wrote in a note to investors Monday.
  • “Furthermore, we find it instructive that Bitcoin also peaked on December 18th.”
4. Equities soared in January before swinging negative during a rocky first two weeks of February in which the Dow Jones lost more than 1,000 points in a trading session twice. 
  • “Is the worst of the sell off over? Next up we’ll ask one money manager that never saw it coming in the first place” – @StockCats
5. Trump’s Spending Spree

Perspective: “Trump would be no better than Clinton on Fed reform. He loves debt as much as anyone. Fed inequality-machine will keep going on no matter what” – @RudyHavenstein, September 12, 2016

What’s the final tab, sir? US debt to hit $30 trillion in 2028 under Trump budgetZeroHedge. Thanks, Obama!

  • We don’t know, either: “Our $16T national debt is now bigger than our $15T GDP. If Obama is re-elected watch for an economic meltdown in 2013,” – @realDonaldTrump, September/2012
6. Nicholas Nassim Taleb breaks down the XIV inverse volatility trade “and why forecasting is BS
 7. Keeping our ears close to the ground … by listening to the Crypto Street Pod Cast’s Sunday discussion with crypto mining veteran @notsofast.
  • “In five years, any postsecondary education or training program that’s two years of length or less and that’s attempting to charge tuition will be seen as an anachronism,” says Ryan Craig, co-founder of University Ventures.
  • “It will be a negative market signal to prospective students, who will wonder why they’re demanding tuition upfront rather than taking an income share (i.e., is this a scam?).”

~ Stay Classy San Diego ~

The Ferowich Report

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